SMART Market

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In the early stages of the cycle

The market retreated 9% in May. These losses, although painful, largely reflect excessive concerns surrounding the debt crisis in Europe, but also the uncertainty created by the resignation of Indonesia’s Finance Minister.  So with these concerns easing, greater opportunities shall come. Most crucially of all, the economy is doing well and is even expanding at its fastest pace since the 2008 crisis – although still below the very fast growth pace at its peak in 1995 – supported by benign inflation and record low interest rates. Manufacturing is strong and the Manufacturing Index rose an impressive 5% in 1Q10 YoY – its largest increase since 1Q08. Exports are at a decade high. Fiscally, things are in good shape and the Debt-to-GDP ratio has fallen to only 28%. Bank lending has been prudent with loans growth of 21% p.a. over the last 5 years. All in all, we believe the economy is in an early stage of a 7-year cycle, meaning strong earnings growth to come. On the political front, there are inevitably some frictions from time to time, but huge gains in achieving political stability have been made. Using a bottom-up approach, we arrive at a new index target of 3,193, implying 15.5x 2010 PER. As we will argue later, there is upside to this target, stemming from the anticipated economic expansion which will surely lead to earnings upgrades.

May 2010, source: Danareksa

May 31, 2010 Posted by | Hot Issue, Indonesia Economic, Market Analysis, Market Outlook & Trends, Momentum Investing, News & Information, Stock Market | 1 Comment


By Perdana Wahyu Santosa

Salah satu metode investasi yang populer sekaligus powerful dalam memberikan imbal hasil (return) yang tinggi dalam sejarah investasi dunia adalah Value Investing. Konsep investasi ini digagas Prof. Benjamin Graham. Salah satu value investor kaliber dunia adalah Warren Buffet yang merupakan salah satu orang terkaya di dunia saat ini. Tentu saja para investor yang ingin menggunakan strategi ini harus memahami teknik evaluasi terhadap nilai-nilai saham sesuai dengan karakter pasar modalnya. Pemahaman terhadap aspek fundamental menjadi kunci keberhasilan value investing ini.

Namun ada baiknya kita memahami dahulu definisi dari value investing tersebut:

Value investing is finding a stock that is selling at a discount to its intrinsic value or companies that the market has undervalued for some reason unrelated to its economic fundamentals.

Dari definisi di atas, kata kuncinya adalah: discount to intrinsic value dan undervalued. Lalu apakah intrinsic value yang dimaksud? Bagaimana menjadi undervalued?. Intrinsic value adalah nilai wajar dan pantas dari saham yang diperdagangkan sedangkan undervalued merupakan kondisi harga yang berada di bawah intrinsic value-nya. Perbedaan antara intrinsic value dan nilai undervalued saham tersebut disebut discount namun dengan catatan nilai undervalued saham tersebut bukan karena masalah fundamental. Masalah utama strategi ini adalah kemampuan analisis kita dalam menentukan intrinsic value pada suatu saham sehingga kita mengetahui undervalued atau overvalued dibandingkan dengan harganya.

Margin of Safety

Merupakan ruang antara intrinsic value dengan nilai undervalued-nya yang menciptakan “safety” setara dengan discount-nya tersebut. Keuntungan yang kita peroleh didapat ketika harga terkoreksi kembali menuju nilai wajarnya yaitu sebesar margin of safety-nya. Hal ini menjadi sangat penting karena kesuksesan investing value terletak pada ketepatan memilih saham pada harga yang tepat pula. Tentunya kemampuan analisis dan riset fundamental dan disiplin menjadi penting. If you could not buy the stock at that price, you would pass.

Rasio Finansial

Beberapa rasio finansial yang penting diperhatikan dalam strtaegi ini adalah:

• price to book ratios

• price to sales ratios

• price to earnings ratios

• price to cash flow ratios

Para value investor di BEI dapat melakukan benchmarking rasio-rasio tersebut dengan indeks yang diyakininya. Secara umum dapat digunakan IHSG, namun untuk tujuan yang lebih akurat dapat membandingkannya dengan LQ-45 atau BI-27 dimana saham yang akan dibeli masuk dalam komposisi indeks tersebut. Bahkan untuk lebih spesifik lagi dapat dibandingkan dengan sektor atau industrinya. Namun, value investing tidak semata-mata mencari saham undervalued yang terlalu murah karena masalah fundamental atau moral hazard manajemennya. Emiten jenis ini hanya akan menciptkan kesulitan dan kerugian bagi strategi value investing.

One of the ways you can make sure the company is on solid footing is to look at its financial ratios and its link of them.

Faktor lain yang sangat penting adalah debt ratio yang relatif rendah dan cash flow yang baik, tentunya. Pereusahaan yang mampu mengelola hutang dan cash flow-nya dengan baik dan wajar akan memberikan market value added yang tinggi di masa depan. Nilai debt ratio yang terlalu tinggi (>200%) akan membuat beban finansial jangka panjang, apalagi menggunakan fasilitas repo dan derivatif secara masif.

Successful value investing depends on identifying a stock that is trading under the intrinsic value of the company and buying with a margin of safety in case you have misjudged the intrinsic value (Little, 2008).

Pada umumnya hanya investor bijak yang dapat mengalahkan pasar. Salam investasi.

April 16, 2009 Posted by | All Stock Market Strategies, Beginners, Value Investing | 1 Comment

Indosat with Neutral Market Perception

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March 14, 2009 Posted by | Growth Investing, Stocks Analysis | Leave a comment


margin-of-safetyBENJAMIN GRAHAM

Benjamin Graham tells us that investment policy can be reduced to three simple words: “Margin of Safety” – the price at which a share investment can be bought with minimal downside risk.

The important point here is that the margin of safety price is not the same as the price that an investor calculates a share to be intrinsically worth.


An investor may calculate the intrinsic value of a share by differing methods and will eventually come up with a price that he or she believes represents good buying value. Graham had his methods of calculating intrinsic value, Warren Buffett has his, other successful investors have theirs.

Graham acknowledges, however, that calculations may be wrong, or that external events may take place to affect the value of the share. These cannot be predicted. For these reasons, the investor must have a margin of safety, an inbuilt factor that allows for these possibilities.


For Benjamin Graham, the benchmark for calculating the margin of safety was the interest rate payable for prime quality bonds. As Graham wrote in an era when prime bonds were much more prominent, it is more practical now to adopt, as Warren Buffett apparently does, the rate of return of government bonds as the benchmark.

Graham then uses a comparative approach. If the risk in two forms of investment is the same, then it must be better to take the investment with the higher return. Conversely, an investment with higher risk, such as shares, should, when calculating the margin of safety, have a higher return


Modifying then the example that Benjamin Graham uses in his book, we can take a share investment that is yielding 10 per cent earnings. For example, company A is earning 90 cents per share and is selling in the market at 10 dollars. If the rate of return on government bonds is 5 per cent, then the share is yielding annually an excess of 5 per cent. Over a period of ten years, the excess yield will total about 50 per cent, which, in Graham’s opinion, may be enough, if the share investment was wisely chosen in the first place. Of course, the total margin of safety will fluctuate depending upon the quality of the share investment.

Even so, something may go wrong. Graham believes however, that, with a diversified portfolio of 20 or more representative share investments, the margin of error approach will, over time, produce satisfactory results.


“[To] have a true investment, there must be a true margin of safety. And a true margin of safety is one that can be demonstrated by figures, by persuasive reasoning, and by reference to a body of actual experience”.

February 19, 2009 Posted by | All Stock Market Strategies, Value Investing | 1 Comment